Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
